Forse ci sono stati problemi nei run odierni dei GM Gfs e ecmwf? qualcuno lo sa spiegare? grazie 000
FXUS10 KWNH 161908
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO SECOND SECTION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID JAN 16/1200 UTC THRU JAN 20/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...
12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION INCLUDING MODEL
PREFERENCES...
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS PROGRESSION ALOFT CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...BUT THERE ARE
STRENGTH ISSUES. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS NOW A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...A WEAKER SOLUTION ALOFT MAKES SENSE...SO THE 12Z CANADIAN
IS LIKELY TOO DEEP AND A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.
THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE THE QUICKEST WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS THE
VAGUEST/MOST ILL-DEFINED WITH ITS DEPICTION. THE 12Z UKMET/12Z
CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF SHOW A BONUS SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WASHINGTON
STATE THURSDAY...WHICH HAD NO 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A MODEL TREND/CONSENSUS FORMING
HERE AROUND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD OVERRULE THE OLDER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL FAVOR A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SHIFTING GUIDANCE...THE
WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE QUICKNESS OF THE ZONAL
/WEST-TO-EAST/ FLOW IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE SLOW OUTLIERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED
TO OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL
FAVOR THE QUICKER 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET CONSENSUS HERE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DECREASED.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM COMPROMISE WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ABOARD THE IDEA OF
AMPLIFYING THE SYSTEM ALOFT AS IT MOVES UNDER THE BASE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX AS IT SCOOTS BY THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER
WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/OCCASIONALLY QUICKER THAN THE REMAINING CONSENSUS...AND DUE
TO THIS APPEAR TOO FLAT WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...LYING COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS LOW POSITION. THE UKMET HAS
HAD PROBLEMS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS NOW. THE
00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN THE MORE
AMPLIFIED/MORE NORTHERLY CAMP...SIMILAR TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN /THE
STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT/ THE FARTHEST NORTH. PER THE
ABOVE...WILL PREFER A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM COMPROMISE
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC OR GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
WESTWARD/TO THE LEFT WITH ITS SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY DESPITE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DEPTH OF ITS PARENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NOW THAT THE 12Z
UKMET HAS FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA...WILL PREFER GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE /WHICH LIES
WEST OF THE 12Z GFS/ WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...
ROTH
$$
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PMDHMD
FXUS10 KWNH 161908
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO SECOND SECTION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID JAN 16/1200 UTC THRU JAN 20/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...
12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION INCLUDING MODEL
PREFERENCES...
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS PROGRESSION ALOFT CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...BUT THERE ARE
STRENGTH ISSUES. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS NOW A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...A WEAKER SOLUTION ALOFT MAKES SENSE...SO THE 12Z CANADIAN
IS LIKELY TOO DEEP AND A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.
THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE THE QUICKEST WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS THE
VAGUEST/MOST ILL-DEFINED WITH ITS DEPICTION. THE 12Z UKMET/12Z
CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF SHOW A BONUS SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WASHINGTON
STATE THURSDAY...WHICH HAD NO 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A MODEL TREND/CONSENSUS FORMING
HERE AROUND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD OVERRULE THE OLDER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL FAVOR A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SHIFTING GUIDANCE...THE
WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE QUICKNESS OF THE ZONAL
/WEST-TO-EAST/ FLOW IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE SLOW OUTLIERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED
TO OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL
FAVOR THE QUICKER 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET CONSENSUS HERE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DECREASED.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM COMPROMISE WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ABOARD THE IDEA OF
AMPLIFYING THE SYSTEM ALOFT AS IT MOVES UNDER THE BASE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX AS IT SCOOTS BY THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER
WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/OCCASIONALLY QUICKER THAN THE REMAINING CONSENSUS...AND DUE
TO THIS APPEAR TOO FLAT WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...LYING COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS LOW POSITION. THE UKMET HAS
HAD PROBLEMS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS NOW. THE
00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN THE MORE
AMPLIFIED/MORE NORTHERLY CAMP...SIMILAR TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN /THE
STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT/ THE FARTHEST NORTH. PER THE
ABOVE...WILL PREFER A 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM COMPROMISE
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC OR GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
WESTWARD/TO THE LEFT WITH ITS SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY DESPITE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE DEPTH OF ITS PARENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NOW THAT THE 12Z
UKMET HAS FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA...WILL PREFER GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE /WHICH LIES
WEST OF THE 12Z GFS/ WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...
ROTH
$$
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PMDHMD
